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The more natural gas conferences I attend, the more I hear of the industry’s hopes that Europe will forgo climate targets and embrace natural gas as the cleanest hydrocarbon fuel for the future, to quickly reduce CO2 emissions but at a nicer price.

Who needs those costly renewables subsidies at a time of economic troubles like this?
This week, it was reported that Spain has suspended subsidies for new clean power generation, and is no longer one of the Top 10 countries for renewables investments.

Danish windmillHaving interviewed a couple of Danes in the energy biz (DONG Energy, for example, is a particularly forward-thinking company), it’s been interesting to note that Denmark is still willing and able to do things in the way we’d all love to do them: Go “all renewables” by a certain date, pursue innovative solutions to do that, and even foot the bill.

Alas, it doesn’t look like the rest of Europe – with its teetering economies – will pursue such goals with the same level of enthusiasm until things return to normal, if ever.

Now, the head of the Danish Wind Industry Association is issuing a warning call, that the EU will not meet its 2020 renewables targets without proactive involvement from governments and the European Commission.

In an interview on RECHARGE, Jan Hylleberg says the EC already having decided on those targets does not mean that things will automatically get done. He wonders whether countries are really on track and is encouraging that the Commission dialogue with member states on their progress.

Hylleberg warns that the biggest risk is countries lagging behind on meeting their targets and then experiencing problems towards the end of the period when they find that the supply chain cannot necessarily deliver the capacity needed.

It would be interesting to hear some specifics as to where member states are at with implementation.

All in all, I think it’s great that the EU has such targets, even if they are not met on the target date. But “going for gas” wouldn’t be such a bad idea in the meantime.

Yes, it’s windy up in those alps. Austria apparently gets 71% of its electricity from wind and sits at the top of the list for wind generation in Europe, according to a post on the REVE website.

At the other end of the scale, Poland, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg and Hungary are all set to cover less than 20% of their electricity needs with renewable electricity.

The overall figure for the EU is 34% by 2020 – which puts us on track to meet the agreement struck in 2008 to cover 20% of our energy needs with renewable sources, meaning 34% for the electricity sector.

The article continues that by 2020 14% of Europe’s power needs should be met by wind.

In this blog post, a journalist from Britain’s left-leaning Guardian newspaper goes to Poland and speaks to the country’s Ministry for Climate Change, asking them, in essence, how they will shirk “dirty coal,” embrace environmentally “questionable” shale gas and meet EU climate change targets, especially considering their present stint at the head of the EU presidency.

If there seems any chance that Poland is going to ease up on its coal burning, it looks like shale gas would take its place. “There is a great expectation that shale gas will help us reach our climate goals,” Mackowiak Pandera said, notwithstanding the debate on whether shale really is a much lower carbon fuel than coal. She then told me something I had not heard before: “There are 90 permit requests for shale gas in Poland. The initial research is very promising for us.”

Given the country’s enthusiasm for developing shale gas, it does make one wonder about its commitment to climate change goals. Can you really be committed to unconventional gas and also be in favor of reducing CO2. Just thinking about the trucking of water in and out of a drilling operation, it’s a question in my mind.

If you’re a repeat visitor to Oil & Gas Watch Europe, you’ve probably noticed that we’re a bit behind on what’s going on lately.

We know where our bread is buttered: Paid work for clients gets top priority; blogging (and self promotion) comes later. It was a busy time in the last couple of months, but now it’s time to get back up to speed in renewables, nuclear, and, of course, unconventional gas, among others.

We’ll be monitoring things a bit more closely, and hope to telegram what’s going on, writing a sentence or two, and throwing some links out there.

This week was an exciting one for the development of shale gas in Poland. Chevron Polska has signed a three-year contract with Halliburton to help it undertake exploration activities in fourth quarter 2011.

Read all about it from Oil & Gas Financial Journal.

That sort of longer-term commitment to exploration probably does mean that shale’s prospects are looking increasingly better on the ground in Poland.

It connects to a question I posed to a marketing representative from a European oilfield services enterprise, which has also been contracted in Poland. We spoke of the rates charged by hydrocarbons drillers there, how high they are at present, and how they’re likely to go down as increased competition enters the Polish market. But in these “early days” high rates must be charged, because no one knows how long a prospecting company will be committed to their shale concession. And that all depends on exploratory results.

 

France is a place like no other. It’s a thought that may be running through the minds of the players involved in the country’s shale plays. In the course of just a year, those who’d received drilling permits in France (Total, GDF Suez, and Schuepbach Energy) are probably shouting merd!

This week we saw the headline on Euractiv.com (among others):

Shale gas drilling likely to be banned in France

The French government, apparently worried about water quality, are fast tracking a bill; MPs will examine the bill only once.

In March, the French government had prolonged a moratorium on shale gas drilling until June.

This had followed protests opposing the drilling method, notably in the village of Villeneuve-de-Berg in southern France, with over 20,000 people voicing their opposition chanting “No gazaran!” Shale gas drilling near the town had been planned for the end of 2011.

Twenty thousand people showing up is tough to ignore (even a little gathering like this was difficult to ignore), so we’re not surprised at the reaction from the French government.

Reaction from the head of TOTAL, however, seems typical.

During a presentation of his company’s annual results last February, the director-general of Total, Christophe Margerie, said he was “annoyed by the noise” surrounding shale gas. He expressed frustration with excessive concern about the safety of drilling, saying “it’s good to talk about the problems this can pose – if one day there are some – but today, there are none”.

The industry is failing to allay public concerns, which should be top priority, because you’ve got to sell them on it before the drilling starts. Granted, that may not be the case for Poland, which the article notes is giving shale drilling the green light.

Read the original article HERE.

Today here in Warsaw, over lunch some new acquaintances and I were talking about when shale gas production will actually take off in Poland. Some say 2014, while others bet it could be as far off as 2020.
With a belly full of hearty Polish cuisine (and a thirst-quenching beer), I opined that it could be much closer because it seems in this world virtually anything could happen – just look at how the nuclear catastrophe in Japan is falling out all over the world.
Something as simple as another spat between Russia and one of its neighbors over the price of natural gas in their contract could mean the shutoff valve is turned on their shared infrastructure, which could put some EU states in a bind. And that would make it that much more urgent for Europe to really get its shit together and increase its energy security. Hello Polish shale gas, perhaps at an even earlier date.
In the context of all that, I’ve found tonight’s press release, below, for your reading pleasure.
April 06, 2011 12:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time

Research and Markets: Changing the Economics of Nuclear Power: Impact of Shale Gas E&P

DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/f0e2ee/changing_the_econo) has announced the addition of the “Changing the Economics of Nuclear Power: Impact of Shale Gas E&P” report to their offering.

“Changing the Economics of Nuclear Power: Impact of Shale Gas E&P”

Changing the Economics of Nuclear Power: Impact of Shale Gas E&P

The proliferation of shale gas E&P activity in the US has turned the energy market on its head and is having a profound impact on investment calculations for new power generation assets. It is believed that the ensuing glut in US natural gas supply has effectively killed off the momentum for a nuclear renaissance in the US. US gas price dynamics are anticipated to cascade through the European gas market, and in tandem with ongoing exploration for shale gas in Europe, it is also believed the European nuclear new-build plans can also be in line for a re-assessment by sponsors and financiers.

The financial crisis of 2008/2009 brought financing ventures for nuclear power to an abrupt halt. With sponsors and financiers taking a more circumspect approach to long-term risk, these extremely capital intensive projects went on the backburner and several were subsequently abandoned, at least for the time being (see Calvert Cliffs 3 in the US, Belene in Bulgaria and Cernadova 3 & 4 in Romania). In tandem, the proliferation of exploration and production (E&P) activities for unconventional gas in the US proved so successful that most recent estimates show that (depending on depletion rates) the US can be self sufficient in natural gas for a century and possibly longer.

This has proved to be a crucial factor that is altering the economics behind nuclear power projects. BMI believes that the dramatic increase in US domestic natural gas production and subsequent reduction in natural gas prices was the deciding factor that has tipped the balance of economic viability against nuclear power. According to the latest long-term price forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), it could be 15 years before nuclear power becomes cost competitive in relation to natural gas again.

This special report highlights trends and patterns that have arisen out of the US regarding the correlation between rising shale gas production and feasibility of nuclear power projects. It asks what this could mean for Europe’s nuclear power sector as shale gas exploration proliferates across the region at a time when several governments are still trying to get plans for nuclear new builds off the ground.

It concludes that the dynamics of unconventional gas developments are different in the US and Europe; indeed, it is too soon to tell what the prospects are for unconventional gas production in Europe, and therefore have only attempted a theoretical scenario in this case. Based on this, BMI believes that sponsors in Europe will hold off from commitments to major nuclear projects until they are able to gauge what, if any, impact on European gas prices the current exploration will have.

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/f0e2ee/changing_the_econo.

 

Contacts

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716

 

It looks like European leaders are starting to get a whiff of shale gas (which is odorless until it’s processed, we know) and how such new sources of energy could help Europe meet its climate change goals.

According to a report on New Europe, decision makers meeting in Hungary appear to be going for natural gas, or at least batting its advantages around a bit.

“If you compare natural gas to fossil fuels it is one of the cleanest fossil fuels so it has a role to play in moving towards a low-carbon society,” Artur Runge-Metzger, Director for Climate Strategy and Negotiations at the European Commission told New Europe in Budapest on 23 March. He added that there is a much larger supply than people might have expected a few years ago. “It is not only the pipelines that come from the East to Europe but also all the LNG terminals that have been built in the past years and the issue of shale gas where there is significant resources also in Europe,” he said, noting that shale gas must be exploited in an environmental way.

The last thought in that sentence – “in an environmental way” – is the only way it’s going to happen in Europe (especially in France).

If you need any evidence, just look at the public opposition to nuclear in the wake of the on-going catastrophe at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear facilities. The Associated Press is reporting that over 100,000 protesters took to the streets of Berlin demanding the abolishment of nuclear power in Germany.

The disaster at Japan’s Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear facility triggered Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative government last week to order a temporary shut down of seven of the country’s older reactors pending thorough safety investigations. Officials have since hinted several of them might never go back into service.

The report writes that some opposition lawmakers in Germany think all reactors there should be mothballed before 2020. It sounds tough, given the country gets nearly one quarter of its power from nuclear.

Germany — which stands alone among the wold’s leading industrialized nations in its determination to overcome nuclear power — currently gets some 23 percent of its energy supply from its reactors, 17 percent from renewable energies, 13 percent from natural gas and more than 40 percent from coal. The Environment Ministry maintains that renewable energy will be able to contribute 40 percent of the country’s overall electricity production in 10 years.

Meanwhile, EurActiv writes that Europe has plans to bolster nuclear facility safety, even putting plants through “stress tests.”

“We expect [stress tests] to be universal, universal in Europe, so all nuclear sites should be subject to this assessment of safety,” said European Commission President José Manuel Barroso.

Apparently France, which would still like to sell nuclear technology to others, is promising to shut down any of its nuclear reactors which failed such tests.

France, a major exporter of nuclear technology, has unexpectedly found common ground with Germany by tuning its sales pitch to the new political landscape. It has started advocating the safety aspects of its next generation reactors as it touts for business on international markets.

It was supposed to be the future. Nuclear energy was one of the answers to mitigating climate change and was supposed to help power the world into the future. (Just last fall, the UK approved plans to build 8 additional nuclear plants.)

But the losing battle at Japan’s nuclear reactors following their massive earthquake is no doubt drumming up bad dreams for those considering the expansion of nuclear power to meet future energy needs (like Europe).

For capital cities across the continent “re-think” appears to be the expression of the week. Almost immediately following the news of the leaked radiation and possible reactor meltdown in Japan, German anti-nuke protesters were holding their signs up high. Now, many European countries appear to be engaged in a bit of soul searching regarding the future of nuclear power.

Some in Europe believe fears of nuclear to be an overreaction, according to Spiegel‘s European Press Review.

But The Wall Street Journal writes that nuclear industry reps are on the ropes; French and German companies are particularly on the defensive. Now some European leaders appear to be cooling down towards nuclear.

Nowhere have the political effects of the Japan situation been more dramatic thus far than in Germany, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel had last autumn engineered a controversial move to extend the lifespan of Germany’s nuclear plants by an average of 12 years. In a partial reversal earlier this week, Ms. Merkel on Tuesday ordered the closure of Germany’s seven oldest nuclear plants pending a three-month security review. The seven plants affected account for just under 5% of Germany’s power.

Possible good news for natural gas?

Some analysts believe natural gas is the best positioned fuel to replace nuclear energy in both the short and long term.

So what are the challengers to the now-battered nuclear industry? In an article on The Guardian, the EU’s Climate Change Commissioner says energy from wind turbines at sea will eventually be cheaper than building new nukes.

Offshore wind energy has long been seen as an expensive way of generating power, costing about two to three times more than erecting turbines on land, but the expense is likely to come down, while the costs of nuclear energy are opaque, according to analysis by the European commission.

Meanwhile, the website Treehugger provides information on Europe’s reaction as a whole.

The European Commission is planning the closest review, demanding that all EU energy companies offer detailed descriptions of how cooling mechanisms work at the 150 EU reactors; what emergency plans are in place in the event of earthquakes, what backup systems can provide energy in the case of long power outtages, and how the EU would handle multiple simultaneous accidents at several power plants.

Still, the piece notes that many European countries, like Russia, France, Turkey and the Czech Republic are staying the course with their nuclear power strategies.

An analysis on Moody’s writes that Europe will stick with nuclear power, because of things like rising oil prices and the will to secure independent energy supplies. It may take a bit of time, but nuclear power is likely to regain its footing.

Eastern European countries are some of the most focused on increasing nuclear power capabilities and reducing energy dependence on Russia. New nuclear power stations are due to come on line in coming years in Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland, as well as Finland, while even EU Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard recently said that “nuclear power will be there for quite some time, whatever happens”.

Still, here in Central and Eastern Europe, the general public can easily recall the fateful days of the Chernobyl meltdown and taking iodine pills. Given those memories are not that stale, the prospect of another such a disaster does not seem that remote for many.

It seems that European leaders in Brussels see the economic downturn as something of an opportunity – a chance to hunker down and embrace both renewables and energy efficiency in the hopes of securing energy security for the continent and tackling climate change.

A report on Teatro Naturale writes that they’ve actually put out a manifesto to go for 100% renewable energy by 2050, which is being called for by over 200 European businesses and organizations. (I can hear O&G execs groaning.)

“Confronted not only with an economic downturn, but in particular with the challenges posed by climate change, an increasing fuel import dependency and rising fossil fuel prices, Europe urgently needs to develop solutions for a future sustainable energy system entirely based on renewable energy sources”, says the declaration, which has been presented today as the European Union reviews its own objective for Europe’s energy future to 2050 and EU leaders prepare to meet in Brussels on 4 February in the first high-level energy summit to be held.

Some of the organizations are NGOs like Danfoss, Sanyo, Mainstream Renewable Power, La Compagnie du Vent (a subsidiary of GDF Suez). The head of Greenpeace in Spain says that it’s time to seize the day and decide on what course the future will take in terms of climate change and sustainability.

Read the full piece here.

The prospect of importing North America’s “shale gas revolution” to other parts of the world, like Europe, sounds great.

A report on EarthTimes.org provides a succinct backgrounder for what shale gas is and how it all came about in America.

They quote NoHotAir‘s Nick Grealy, who says he believes that shale gas can be the lower carbon fuel of the future, the “game changer.”

If this is proved correct then much energy generation could be moved away from the worst fossil-fuel, coal, and towards cleaner gas. In the UK Nick Grealy estimates if coal was replaced by shale gas it would save 30% of all UK carbon emissions by 2020. However conditions in Europe from both a legislative and a practical point of view, are different. Underground resources usually belong to the state, not the landowner, as in the US, and the gas is less accessible geographically, together with a considerably higher population density makes onshore drilling more problematic.

As this reporter has heard in numerous European unconventional gas conferences, shale gas drillers just won’t be able to drill as many holes in Europe as they can in a place like Texas to get at the gas – there are too many people around, protected areas, etc. And, US landowners allowing drillers onto their land is obviously much more enticing – and assuages their fears of any perceived risks about hydraulic fracturing – because they have been paid big money. European landowners won’t see such a payoff.

As Mr. Grealy tells EarthTimes, because of these factors we’re much more likely to see shale gas development happen much more quickly in the Far East, where the will to makes things happen can often railroad over regulations and environmental concerns. I can also imagine there’s a bit less of a history of protest against such an industry, like the one we witnessed recently in Paris, in a place like China.

He contrasts the lack of exploration data and smaller potential drilling areas in Europe compared with the USA. As Europe is heavily populated, shale gas activities ”are potentially disruptive to local communities,” and as mentioned above, the legal position is different. These are barriers that the technology faces in Western Europe. Other parts of the world like China, which has huge shale gas resources and lower environmental standards, will be more likely to make use of shale gas’s potential than Western Europe.

Read the original piece here.

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